POLL: California Supports Marriage Equality
July 18, 2008 by Bryan
In a new Field Poll from California, it looks like good news for supporters of marriage equality. Proposition 8, California’s proposed anti-marriage constitutional amendment is trailing according to the latest poll which is the first to use the exact language that will be on the ballot.
The poll shows that the anti-marriage amendment is opposed by 51 percent of likely voters with 42 percent in favor, according to the new Field Poll.
Those results put the proposed ban in a politically perilous position according to Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll.
DiCamillo said, “Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition. Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.”
While this is great news for supporters of marriage equality, I think it’s equally important to look at the ‘lie factor’ in polls around controversial issues such as this. Here in Oregon during Measure 36 we saw the ‘lie factor’ in the polls. Even though these polls can be anonymous, folks still want to come across as ‘fair minded’ and not as bigots. This has also been the case in many other states and in national polls. And I truly don’t want to sound like Debbie Downer at all – a 9 point spread is an amazing place to be right now.
So just to make it clear, this is a great place for the No on Prop 8 campaign to start off.
There is an interesting breakdown in Republicans, Democrats and minor party/unaffiliated voters. Head over to Sign on San Diego for the whole story.
This is also expected to be a $30 million dollar campaign when you total up the spending from both sides. Right now the anti-gays are ahead in funding. Head on over to Equality California’s website and make a contribution of any size–even if it’s $15 or $20. Each contribution will help put an end to the fight for marriage equality in California… and beyond.